The probability of getting a blue counter on a bag of counters is 0.4. Maria plans to try it 100 times. About how many times should Maria expect a blue counter, and would exactly that number be surprising?0.4 × 100 = about 40 times
Answer: about 40 times
Getting exactly that number would not be surprising, but neither would a result a little above or below it — probability predicts the long-run rate, not the exact count of one experiment.